The Black Swan

By Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“Hedonic Happiness - number of times you get good news counts more than the quality of the good news.”

“Prediction not narration is our true test of our understanding of the world.”

“In Extremistan, inequalities are such that one single observation can disproportionately impact the aggregate, or the total.”

“The narrative fallacy addresses our limited ability to look at sequences of facts without weaving an explanation into them, or, equivalently, forcing a logical link, an arrow of relationship upon them. Explanations bind facts together. They make them all the more easily remembered; they help them make more sense. Where this propensity can go wrong is when it increases our impression of understanding.”